Mexico's fertility since 1960: from 6.8 children per woman to under 2
At 1960 rates, a woman in Mexico would have had about 6.8 children over her lifetime, almost twice the US figure. By 2024, the World Bank put Mexico at 1.89 and the US at 1.63: a gap of about three children has narrowed to about a quarter.
INEGI counted 1,678,532 registered births in Mexico in 2025, almost the same as in 2024. Our sister site covers the year itself; here it's set against the long record of how many children Mexican women have.
Two lines that converged
In 1960, a woman in Mexico could expect to have 6.76 children over her lifetime, according to the World Bank's total fertility rate, which draws on the UN Population Division's estimates. In the US, the figure was 3.65. Mexico's rate peaked at 6.83 in 1964 and stayed above 6 through 1973.
By 2024, the latest year in the series, Mexico's rate was 1.89 and the US rate 1.63. The gap between the two countries narrowed from about three children in 1960 to about a quarter of a child in 2024, by our arithmetic. Mexico's rate fell below 2.1, the level usually taken as enough for a population to replace itself without migration, in 2016.
↔ Swipe sideways to see the whole chart.
Total fertility rate, births per woman. Mexico: 1960 6.76; 1970 6.53; 1980 4.74; 1990 3.44; 2000 2.71; 2010 2.34; 2020 1.99; 2024 1.89. The US: 3.65; 2.48; 1.84; 2.08; 2.06; 1.93; 1.64; 1.63. World Bank, from UN Population Division estimates.
The turn after 1974
On 7 Jan 1974, Mexico published a new General Population Law. It tasked the government with running family-planning programs through public education and health services and created the National Population Council, CONAPO, to plan for the country's demography. In 1974, the fertility rate was 5.95. By 1980 it was 4.74, and by 1990 3.44: about two and a half fewer children per woman in sixteen years, by our arithmetic on the World Bank series. The figures don't show whether, or how much, the law itself drove the fall; urbanization, schooling and work outside the home moved in the same years.
Two ways of counting
The World Bank's rate estimates children per woman over a lifetime. INEGI's figure counts births in the year they're registered, which includes late registrations of children born in earlier years. The two measures answer different questions, and they don't move in step from year to year. Both point the same way: registered births in 2025 were 26.8% below 2016, by our arithmetic on INEGI's series, and the fertility rate kept falling from 2016 to 2024.
The World Bank's series stops at 2024. INEGI's registered births for 2026 are expected in 2027.
Sources
- World Bank, Fertility rate, total (births per woman), SP.DYN.TFRT.IN, Mexico and the US (updated 8 Oct 2026), 2026-10-31. Link
- INEGI, Estadística de Nacimientos Registrados 2025, results report 38/26, 2026-09-25. Link
- Ley General de Población, published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación on 7 Jan 1974 (consolidated text; articles 3 and 5 as cited), 2026-10-31. Link
- Wikipedia, Demographics of Mexico (context), 2026-10-31. Link
- Wikipedia, Consejo Nacional de Población (context), 2026-10-31. Link
- Wikipedia, Sub-replacement fertility (context), 2026-10-31. Link
The same release, as this week's numbers, on our sister site: rutanamex.com/blog/mexico-births-2025.
Newer: Trucks crossing from Mexico since 1996: from 3.3 million a year to 7.6 million · Older: Mexico's growth since 1961: from about 6.7% a year to about 2%