Mexico's inflation against its 3% target: inside the band, and above the pace the IMF expected
At 3.62% in early October 2026, inflation sits within Banxico's 2% to 4% band. From 2000 to 2024, the IMF's year-ahead forecasts for Mexico were too low 17 times and too high five times.
Consumer prices in Mexico rose 3.62% over the twelve months to the first half of October 2026, INEGI reported on 22 October 2026. Our sister site covers the fortnight. What follows sets that number in the long record.
From three digits to one
In 1987, prices rose 159.2% from December to December, and in 1995, the year of the peso crisis, they rose 52.0%, according to the consumer price series compiled by the public finance research center of Mexico's Chamber of Deputies (CEFP). By 1999, the rate fell to 12.3%, and by 2001 to 4.4%. The chart on this page uses the World Bank's annual average series, which runs lower in the peak years (131.8% in 1987, 35.0% in 1995) because it averages the whole year instead of comparing December with December.
Banco de México, autonomous since April 1994, formally adopted inflation targeting in 2001 and, in 2002, set its long-term goal at 3%, with a band of one point either side. The target has remained unchanged since 2003.
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Consumer price inflation, annual average, World Bank WDI; the IMF's October forecast for the following year, 2000 to 2024; and Banxico's 3% target since 2003.
How often inflation landed in the band
From December to December, inflation ended inside the 2% to 4% band in nine of the fifteen years from 2003 to 2017, according to the CEFP table. The lowest close was 2.13% in 2015, and the highest in that stretch was 6.77% in 2017. On the World Bank's annual average, inflation passed 5% again in 2021, 2022 and 2023, peaking at 7.9% in 2022, before easing to 3.8% in 2025.
What the experts expected
Every October, the International Monetary Fund publishes a forecast of Mexico's inflation for the following year. For the 25 years from 2000 to 2024, that year-ahead forecast was too low 17 times, too high five times and within a twentieth of a point three times; on average, it fell 0.6 points short of the first published outcome. That is our arithmetic from the IMF's historical forecasts database, April 2025 edition. The largest miss was 2022: the IMF expected 3.8%, and inflation came in at 7.9%.
For 2026, the April 2025 edition expected average inflation of 3.2%. The twelve-month rate in early October is a different measure, so the two do not compare exactly, but at 3.62% it suggests the year is running above that forecast while staying inside Banxico's band. In September 2026, Banxico itself forecast that headline inflation would reach 3% only in the fourth quarter of 2027.
The full record of forecasts and outcomes is on our page What the experts expected. According to their calendars, INEGI publishes the second half of October on 9 November 2026, and Banxico announces its next decision on 5 November 2026.
Sources
- INEGI, Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor, first half of October 2026 (bulletin 633/26), 2026-10-22. Link
- CEFP, Cámara de Diputados, Inflación en México, 1980 to February 2018 (December to December), 2018. Link
- Banco de México, Cuadra and Adame, El esquema de objetivos de inflación en México, no date on page. Link
- Banco de México, monetary policy statement, 2026-09-24. Link
- International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook historical forecasts database (updated 22 Apr 2025), 2025-04-22. Link
- World Bank, World Development Indicators, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG (CC BY 4.0), read 2026-10-23. Link
- Wikipedia in Spanish, Banco de México (context), read 2026-10-29. Link
The same release, as this week's numbers, on our sister site: rutanamex.com/blog/mexico-inflation-early-october-2026.
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